← HVN Store championship | outpost ghent
Water FractalTier 1
at HVN Store championship | outpost ghent
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1209
· median 1209
· range 1176–1242
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1170
Q1 1186
Q3 1402
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.3% | -11.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Water Overlord | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
